未设经济增长目标背后:底线思维下财政货币政策走向如何


来源:中国产业经济股票配资 网   时间:2020-05-27





  “为什么没提出全年经济增速目标”“发行1万亿元抗疫特别国债”“各级政府必须真正过紧日子”……作为指导2020年经济和社会工作的文件,2020年政府工作报告一经发布,多个话题跻身网络热搜。


  XINSHIDAIZHENGQUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAPANXIANGDONGDUIXINJINGBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,JINNIANMEIYOUTICHUQUANNIANJINGJIZENGSUJUTIMUBIAO,DANSHIQIANGDIAOLEYOUXIANWENJIUYEBAOMINSHENG,TIXIANLEDIXIANSIWEI,BAOJIUYEXUYAOWENQIYE,JINLIBANGFUQIYETEBIESHIZHONGXIAOWEIQIYE、GETIGONGSHANGHUDUGUONANGUAN,ZHEIQISHIJIUXUYAOJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCEGENGJIAJIJIYOUWEI。


五家渠炒股配资  DUIYUCHIZILVCHUANGXIAJIN10NIANLAIXINGAO,SHOUCHUANGZHENGQUANYANJIUSUOSUOZHANGWANGJIANHUIRENWEI,JINNIANDECHIZILVNIAN3.6%YISHANGANPAI,YINGGAISHUOSHIYIQINGCHONGJIXIADETESHUANPAI,SHIBIJIAOQIADANGDE,YEWEIHOUXUYIXIEQIANZAIFENGXIANDEHUAJIETIGONGLEKONGJIAN。CONGSHANGBANNIANLAIKAN,WOGUOYIJINGYOUXIANGDANGCHENGDUDEKUANSONGXINGSHIFANGLE,XIABANNIANKENENGYOUSHOUJINDEQUSHI。


  关注1 未设GDP增长目标有何用意?


五家渠炒股配资  FAGAIWEIYUANFUZHURENPENGSENZHICHU,JINNIANDEZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOMEIYOUZAITICHUJINGJIZENGZHANGDEJUTIZHIBIAO,ERZHEIGEZHIBIAOZAIZHONGGUODUONIANYILAIDOUSHIDAJIAZUIGUANZHUDEYIGEZHONGYAOZHIBIAO。BUZAITIJUTIDEZHIBIAO,ZHUYAOHAISHIYINWEIDANGQIANZHONGGUODEJINGJIFAZHANHEGUOMINHUANJINGDOUMIANLINZHEYIXIEZHONGDADEBUQUEDINGXING,SHOUXIANSHISHOUYIQINGYINGXIANG,JINNIANZHONGGUOYIJIDUZENGZHANGZHIYOUFU6.8%,ZHEIYESHIYOUGDPDETONGJISHUJUYILAIZUIDIDEYIGEDANJIZENGZHANGSUDU。ERSANSIJIDUDEGDPQINGKUANGKENENGSHOU黄金配资 YINGXIANGHUIGENGDAYIXIE,TEBIESHIDANGQIANYIQINGZAIQUANQIUFANWEINEIJIXUCHUYUMANYANDETAISHI。BINGQIEZHONGGUOMUQIANCHANYELIANDEWENDINGYESHOUDAOYINGXIANG,SUOYIQUANNIANGDPZENGZHANGSUDUDEBUQUEDINGXINGHAISHIBIJIAODA。


五家渠炒股配资  DANANZHAOYIBANDEHONGGUANZHIBIAOLAIKAN,PENGSENRENWEI,CONGCAIZHENG、JIUYE、WUJIAHAIYOU黄金配资 SHOUZHIDENGFANGMIANLAIKAN,SUIRANMEIYOUSHEZHIJUTIDEGDPZENGZHANGMUBIAO,DANSHIQITASANGEZHIBIAOHAIDOUYOUMINGQUEDETIFA,“WOXIANGGDPZENGZHANGZUIHOUHAISHITIXIANZAIQITAJIGEZHIBIAOZHIZHONG,YAOJINLIJINLIANGDENENGGOUBAOZHENGGDPYOUYIGEBIJIAOGAOZHILIANGDEZENGZHANG,FUHEMUQIANQITAJIGEZHIBIAODESHIJIQINGKUANGDEZENGZHANG”。


  PENGSENBIAOSHI,XIANZAIBUTIYUQIDEZENGZHANGDESHUJU,SHISHISHIQIUSHI,ZUNZHONGGUILVDEDIAOZHENG。


  HUAXIAXINGONGJIJINGJIXUEYANJIUYUANYUANZHANGJIAKANGBIAOSHI,JINNIANZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOLI,GAIBIANLEWANGNIANDEGUANLI,BUTINIANDUDEJINGJIZENGSU,JIUSHIXIWANGYINDAOGEGEFANGMIANBAZHUYILIGENGDUODEJUJIAOZAIZHUAHAO“LIUWEN”、“LIUBAO”SHANG。


  JIAKANGRENWEI,BAOGAOLISUIRANMEITIDAOJINGJIZENGSUMUBIAO,DANSHIYETICHULENIANDUFEICHANGGUANJIANDELINGWAIYIXIEJINGJIGONGZUOYAODADAODEMUBIAO,QIZHONGFEICHANGMINGQUEDITICHUCHENGZHENXINZENGJIUYEGANGWEIYAODADAO900WAN,ZHEIQISHIGENGZHUAZHUSHIZHIDEWENTI,ZHENGGEJINGJIJUMIANYAOWENDINGDEHUA,JIUYESHIJIBENMINSHENGDEWENDINGYINSU,QIYINHANDELUOJISHI,JUEBUYIWEIZHEWOMENZHEIGENIANDUZAIZHUAZHEIXIESHIZHIXINGRENWUWANCHENGDEGUOCHENGZHIJIANKEYIHUSHIBIYAODEJINGJIZENGSU,YINWEIJIUYEYAODADAOYIDINGDESHUIPING,JIUYAOYOUJINGJIZENGSUZHICHENGZHE,YINCI,YAODADAO900WANGECHENGZHENXINZENGJIUYEGANGWEI,XUYAO4%ZUOYOUDEZENGSU,XIANZAIMEIYOUTIZENGSU,JIUSHIRANGDAJIAJUJIAOZENMEZUOHAO“LIUWEN”、“LIUBAO”,JIXUNULIDIYOUHUAJIEGOU、ZHUIQIUFAZHAN,JIUNENGDACHUYIGEHEHUYIYUAN、YIGEZHICHENG900WANJIUYEDEZENGZHANGSUDU,WOJUEDEZHEISHIQINEIZAIDEYIGELUOJIGUANXI。


  关注2 如何看待赤字率创下2010年以来新高?


  2020NIANZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOMINGQUE,JINNIANCHIZILVNIAN3.6%YISHANGANPAI,CAIZHENGCHIZIGUIMOBIQUNIANZENGJIA1WANYIYUAN,TONGSHIFAXING1WANYIYUANKANGYITEBIEGUOZHAI。


  SHUJUXIANSHI,ZHEIYESHI2010NIANZHIJINCHIZILVANPAIZUIGAODEYINIAN。BEIJINGGUOJIAHUIJIXUEYUANCAISHUIZHENGCEYUYINGYONGYANJIUSUOSUOZHANGLIXUHONGDUIXINJINGBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,MIANDUIXINGUANFEIYANYIQINGSUODAILAIDEYINGXIANGJICHONGJI,WOGUOSHISHIGENGJIAJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCE,JIYOULIYUCUJINWOGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG,YOUYOUZHUYUYIZHISHIJIEJINGJISHUAITUI。YINCI,ZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOZHONGTICHUDECHIZILVANPAIJIFAXINGTEBIEGUOZHAISHIQIEHESHIYIDEJUCUO。


  “ZAINIZHOUQIDEHONGGUANJINGJIDIAOKONGZHONG,SHIDUDECHIZILVDUIYUCIJIJINGJIJUYOUJIJIDEZUOYONG。YOUYUCICISHIJIEJINGJIBODONGJIHUIFUDEBUQUEDINGXINGJIAODA,BINGQIE期货配资 JINGJIFAZHANZHONGRENGCUNZAIJIAODADEKUNNAN,SUOYI,WOGUONIDINGDECHIZILVZAI3.6%YISHANG,GAIZHIBIAOBUDANBIQUNIANSUODINGDE2.8%CHIZILVYAOGAO0.8GEBAIFENDIAN,BINGQIEHAILIUYOUSHANGDIAODEKONGJIAN,ZHEIJISHIDUIJINNIANJINGJIYUNXINGDEBUQUEDINGXINGZUOLEGENGKEGUANDEYUPAN,YEFANYINGCHUWOGUOZAIJINGJICIJISHANGDEDAFUDUJIALI,YUJIDUIYUWOGUOXIABANNIANDEJINGJIHUIFUJIANGQIDAOYOULIDETUIDONG。”LIXUHONGBIAOSHI。


五家渠炒股配资  TONGSHI,LIXUHONGRENWEI,WOGUOSUOZENGJIADECHIZIJIANGHUIYUSHENHUASHEHUIZHUYISHICHANGJINGJITIZHIGAIGEJINMIJIEHE,YIFANGMIANFANYINGZAIDUIYUJIUYE、MINSHENGDENGWENTIDEGAODUGUANZHU,ZIJINZHIDAJICENG,ZHICHI“LIUBAO”JI“LIUWEN”;LINGYIFANGMIAN,ZIJINDESHIYONGJIANGGENGZHEZHONGYUXIAOLV,BAQIANHUAZAIDAORENSHANG,DAFUXUEJIANSANGONGJINGFEIDENGZHICHU,YIYOUHUACAIZHENGSHOUZHIDEPINGHENG,ZAIDAFUCIJIJINGJIDETONGSHI,YETONGSHIBIMIANBUBIYAODECAIZHENGZHICHUDAOZHIDECHIZIGUIMOKUOZHANG。ZONGERYANZHI,YISHANGJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCESHIJUYOUZHENDUIXINGDE、YIXIAOLVWEIDAOXIANG、YIMINSHENGWEIGUANZHU、YISHICHANGWEIZHUTIDEQIANGYOULIDEJINGJICIJISHOUDUAN,DUIYUZHULIZHONGGUOJINGJIKEFUKUNNAN、TIZHENXINXIN、LADONGZENGZHANGJUYOUJIJIDEZUOYONG。


  BUZHIRUCI,《ZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAO》HAITICHU,JINNIANNIANPAIDIFANGZHENGFUZHUANXIANGZHAIQUAN3.75WANYIYUAN,YEBIQUNIANZENGJIA1.6WANYIYUAN。


  TONGSHI,TIGAOZHUANXIANGZHAIQUANKEYONGZUOXIANGMUZIBENJINDEBILI,ZHONGYANGYUSUANNEITOUZIANPAI6000YIYUAN。JIANGZHONGDIANZHICHIJICUXIAOFEIHUIMINSHENGYOUDIAOJIEGOUZENGHOUJINGDE“LIANGXINYIZHONG”JIANSHE,ZHUYAOSHI:JIAQIANGXINXINGJICHUSHESHIJIANSHE,FAZHANXINYIDAI股票配资 WANGLUO,TUOZHAN5GYINGYONG,JIANSHECHONGDIANZHUANG,TUIGUANGXINNENGYUANQICHE,JIFAXINXIAOFEIXUQIU、ZHULICHANYESHENGJI。


  CAIZHENGBUGUANWANGXIANSHI,JINNIAN1-4YUE,QUANGUOFAXINGDIFANGZHENGFUZHAIQUAN18973YIYUAN。QIZHONG,YIFAXINGZHUANXIANGZHAIQUAN12240YIYUAN。RUOANCIJISUAN,NIANNEIHAIJIANGFAXINGYUE2.5WANYIYUANEDUDEDIFANGZHENGFUZHUANXIANGZHAIQUAN。


  关注3 发行1万亿元特别国债是否低于预期?


  CIQIANSHICHANGPUBIANYUJITEBIEGUOZHAIFAXINGGUIMOJIANGZAI1WANYI-2WANYIYUAN,SHICHANGSHANGHAICHUXIANWOGUOSHIFOUYINGGAISHIDUCAIZHENGCHIZIHUOBIHUADETAOLUN。


  ZHIXINTOUZISHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAJIANYANJIUYUANYUANZHANG、ZHONGGUOSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIALUNTANLISHIZHANGLIANPINGDUIXINJINGBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,ZHIDINGGUIMOYAOKANCAIZHENGZAIQITAFANGMIANWAJUEZIYUANDEQINGKUANG,ZHEICIBAOGAOYETEBIETANDAOYAOBAXIANGDUIXIANZHIDEZIJINGENGHAODISHIYONGQILAI,TONGSHIXUEJIANZHONGYANGCAIZHENGKAIZHI。“RUGUOHAIYOUWAJUEKONGJIANDEHUA,JIUYAOKAOLVSHIFOUYOUBIYAOJIETAIDUODEZHAI。TONGSHIYEWEIYIHOUDEJIJICAIZHENGZHENGCELIUXIAKONGJIAN,BUZHIDAOJIEXIALAI黄金配资 SHICHANGHAIHUIFASHENGSHENME。SUOYIZHEICIFADEBINGBUSHISHICHANGYUQIDESHANGXIAN。”LIANPINGFENXICHENG。


五家渠炒股配资  ZHONGGUOZHENGCEKEXUEYANJIUHUIJINGJIZHENGCEWEIYUANHUIFUZHURENXUHONGCAIDUIXINJINGBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,WOMENCAIZHENGCHIZISHIFEICHANGWENJIANDE,CONGZHIDINGDEFAXINGGUIMOKAN,SHUOMINGZHENGCEHAIYOUHENDAKONGJIAN,SHIYONGZHEIMEDADELIDUYIZUYIYINGDUIDANGQIANDEKUNNAN。TATIDAO,MEIOUQINGKUANGGENGZAOGAO,QIANQIQIYESHUKUNGUIMODOUCHAOGUOGDP10%LE,ERWOGUODEQINGKUANGBUSHISHICHANGSHANGXIANGXIANGDENEIMEBEIGUAN。TANDAOCAIZHENGCHIZIHUOBIHUA,TARENWEIWOGUOGENBENBUXUYAO,“MEIDAOZHEIGECHENGDU。”


  关注4 降准降息还有空间?


  CICIZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOZAIZHONGSHEN“WENJIANDEHUOBIZHENGCEYAOGENGJIALINGHUOSHIDU”DEJICHUSHANG,TICHUYAOZONGHEYUNYONGJIANGZHUNJIANGXI、ZAIDAIKUANDENGSHOUDUAN,YINDAOGUANGYIHUOBI(ZHU:M2)GONGYINGLIANGHESHEHUIRONGZIGUIMOZENGSUMINGXIANGAOYUQUNIAN。“MINGXIANGAOYUQUNIAN”WEIJINNIANZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOXINTIFA,LINGYIGEXINDETIFASHI“CHUANGXINZHIDASHITIJINGJIDEHUOBIZHENGCEGONGJU,WUBITUIDONGQIYEBIANLIHUODEDAIKUAN,TUIDONGLILVCHIXUXIAXING。”


  DUICI,XINWANGYINXINGSHOUXIYANJIUYUAN、ZHONGGUANCUNHULIANWANGJINRONGYANJIUYUANSHOUXIYANJIUYUANDONGXIMIAODUIXINJINGBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,4YUEM2TONGBIZENGSUDADAO11.1%,YIJINGMINGXIANGAOYUQUNIAN,JIEXIALAIKENENGHAIHUIGENGGAO。ERZAICIQIANGDIAOWENJIANDEHUOBIZHENGCE,YIWEIZHEWOGUOHUOBIZHENGCEBUHUIXIANGMEIGUONEIYANGSHISHILIANGHUAKUANSONG。


五家渠炒股配资  ZHIXINTOUZISHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAJIANYANJIUYUANYUANZHANG、ZHONGGUOSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIALUNTANLISHIZHANGLIANPINGDUIXINJINGBAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,“YINDAOGUANGYIHUOBIGONGYINGLIANGHESHEHUIRONGZIGUIMOZENGSUMINGXIANGAOYUQUNIAN”DETIFAJIBENFUHEYUQI,4YUEXINDAI、SHERONGZENGSUYIMINGXIANGAISHAN,M2TONGBIZENGSUDADAO11.1%,YUJIZHIHOUHAIHUIJINYIBUTISHENG,KENENGHUIDAO12%SHANGXIA,HUOZHEGENGGAO。SHERONGZENGSUXIANGYINGDIYEYAOSHANGQU,KENENGHUIDAO13%-14%,DOUJIAOQUNIANDEGEWEISHUZENGZHANGYOUMINGXIANTIGAO。TAJINYIBUBIAOSHI,BUZANTONGJINQISHICHANGSHANG“HUOBIZHENGCEYAOCHACHE”GUANDIAN,WAIBUHUANJINGYALIZENGDA、JINGJIYAOBAOCHIPINGWENYUNXING、BORUOHUANJIEYAOHUODERONGZIDENG,DOUXUYAORONGZIGUIMOJINYIBUZUOSHANGQU。


  ZHONGNANCAIJINGZHENGFADAXUESHUZIJINGJIYANJIUYUANZHIXINGYUANZHANGPANHELINFENXICHENG,“GUANGYIHUOBIGONGYINGLIANGHESHEHUIRONGZIGUIMOZENGSUMINGXIANGAOYUQUNIAN”YIWEIZHEHAIYAOJINYIBUKUODAHUOBIGONGJI,JINNIANYANGXINGYIJINGJINXINGGUOSANCIJIANGZHUNHENIHUIGOU、MLF(ZHONGQIJIEDAIBIANLI)CAOZUODENGGONGJUJIANGXI,XIAYIBUJIANGZHUNJIANGXIHAIZAIYUQIFANWEINEI,SHICHANGDUILIUDONGXINGBUXUYAODANXIN。


  TANDAOJIANGXIJIANGZHUNDEKONGJIAN,LIANPINGFENXICHENG,WEILEYINXINGGENGHAODIJISHICHANGJINGJIRANGLI,BIRUNIHUIGOU、MLF(ZHONGQIJIEDAIBIANLI)CAOZUOLILVYOUKENENGJINYIBUXIAXING,QIEBUPAICHUCUNKUANJIZHUNLILVZAIWEILAIBUJIUHUIYOUYIDINGFUDUXIADIAODEKENENG。


  CONGCUNKUANZHUNBEIJINLVKAN,JINNIANYANGXINGYIJINXINGGUOSANLUNJIANGZHUN,MUQIANDAXINGYINXINGSHI12.5%,ZHONGXIAOYINXING9.5%,XINGYEZONGHEJIAQUANPINGJUNSHUIPINGWEI10.4%。LIANPINGRENWEI,YINXINGYEWEILAIJIAQUANPINGJUNCUNKUANZHUNBEIJINLVKENENGJIANGDAO10%YINEI。“FAXINGTEBIEGUOZHAIHEDIFANGZHUANXIANGZHAIDOUXUYAOYOURENMAI,YIGEGOUMAIZHUTIJIUSHISHANGYEYINXING。ERYINXINGJIYAOZHICHISHITIJINGJIYOUYAOMAIZHAI,ZAIZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGXIA,HENKENENGJINYIBUSHIDANGXIADIAOZHUNBEIJINLVLAIPEIHETEBIEGUOZHAIHEDIFANGZHUANXIANGZHAIDEFAXING,FUDUHEPINLVBUHUIXIANGQIANYIZHENZINEIMEDA。”LIANPINGCHENG。


五家渠炒股配资  DUI“CHUANGXINZHIDASHITIJINGJIDEHUOBIZHENGCEGONGJU,WUBITUIDONGQIYEBIANLIHUODEDAIKUAN,TUIDONGLILVCHIXUXIAXING”DEYAOQIU,DONGXIMIAOFENXICHENG,ZHIQIANCHUXIANGUOYIXIEMINQIFAZHAIKUNNANDEQINGKUANG,DUICITIGONGLEYIXIEZHAIWUZHICHIRONGZIGONGJU,KENENGZAIZHEIYIFANGMIANHUIYOUCHUANGXIN。ZHONGGUOMINSHENGYINXINGSHOUXIYANJIUYUANWENBINRENWEI,YANGXINGKEYICAIQUBUTONGQIXIAN、KUODADIYAPINFANWEI、SHIDUTIGAODIYALVDENGFANGSHI,CHUANGXINHUOBIZHENGCEGONGJU,XIANGJINRONGJIGOUTIGONGLIUDONGXINGZHICHI,YINDAOZIJINLIUXIANGZHONGDIANLINGYUHEBORUOHUANJIE,SHIXIANKUANHUOBIXIANGKUANXINYONGZHUANHUA。


五家渠炒股配资   转自:新京报网

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