烤鸭一哥全聚德跌落神坛 鸭鸭为什么不香了?


来源:中国产业经济股票配资 网   时间:2020-05-27





疫情影响一季度巨亏


五家渠炒股配资2020NIANSIYUEDI,WOGUOKAOYADIYIGUQUANJUDE(002186.SZ)FABUQI2020NIANYIJIDUCAIWUBAOGAO。CAIBAOXIANSHI2020NIANDIYIJIDU,QUANJUDEYINGYESHOURUJINYOU1.8YIYUAN,JIAO2019NIANYIJIDUTONGQIXIAJIANG55.03%;GUISHUYUSHANGSHIGONGSIGUDONGDEJINGLIRUNKUISUN0.89YIYUAN,TONGBIXIAHUA931.66%,JIANGFUJUDA。


2020NIANYIJIDUQUANJUDEYEJIBIAOXIANJIAOWEICANDAN,ZHUYAOYUANYINWEIXINXINGGUANZHUANGBINGDUFEIYANYIQINGDUIZHENGTICANYINJINGYINGHUANJINGCHANSHENGZHONGYAOQIECHIXUXINGDEFUMIANYINGXIANG,WEIFANGZHIRENQUNJUJIDAOZHIYIQINGCHUANBO,JUMINDUOJUJIAGELIJIANSHAOWAICHU,CANYINMENDIANTANGSHIKELIULIANGRUIJIAN,SUIRANQUANJUDEBUFENMENDIANYIYU2020NIAN2YUEFENJINJISHANGXIANWAIMAIYEWU,DANRENGWUFAZUZHIQIDAFUXIAJIANGDEYINGSHOU。

图表1:2020年第一季度全聚德(002186.SZ)经营概况(单位:元,%)


企业业绩低迷早现端倪


QUANJUDE(002186.SZ)YU2007NIANZAISHENZHENZHENGJIAOSUOSHANGSHI,ZUOWEIZHONGGUOKAOYADIYIGU,QUANJUDESHANGSHICHUQIYEJIBIAOXIANLIANGHAO,YINGLIKUOZHANGSHITOUYEJIAOWEIQIANGJING。2007-2012NIAN,QUANJUDEYIZHIWEICHIYINGYESHOURUZENGZHANGTAISHI,ZHI2012NIAN,QUANJUDESHIXIANYINGSHOU19.44YIYUAN、GUIMUJINGLIRUNDA1.52YIYUAN,YINGLAIYEJIDIANFENG。DANCIHOU2013NIANKAISHIQIYEYINGYESHOURUZAIWUMINGXIANTUPOSHENZHICHUXIANXIAHUA,2019NIANQUANJUDEYINGYESHOURUDIEZHI15.66YIYUAN,WEI2011NIANLAIZUIDIZHI。YOUCIKEJIAN,QUANJUDEYEJIDIMIZAOYOUDUANNI。

图表2:2007-2019年全聚德(002186.SZ)营业收入情况(单位:亿元,%)


QUANJUDE2020NIANYIJIDUDEJUEKUISUNSHANGNENGYIYIQINGDAOZHICANYINXINGYEDAHUANJINGWEIMIZUOWEIJIESHI,DANQI2013NIANZHIHOUZHUJIANZOUXIAPOLUDEYINGSHOUZEWUFATONGYANGGUIJIUYUHONGGUANHUANJING。JUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJUXIANSHI,2011-2019NIAN,ZHONGGUOCANYINXINGYEDESHICHANGGUIMOYINIANFUHEZENGZHANGLV10.76%DESUDUBAOCHIWENDINGZENGZHANG,2019NIANZHONGGUOCANYINXINGYESHOURUDA4.67WANYIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG9.38%,ERQUANJUDEYEJIBIAOXIANZEMINGXIANYUWOGUOCANYINYEDANGQIANZHENGZHENGRISHANGDEFAZHANTAISHICUNZAIJIAODACHAYI。


企业经营能力依旧稳定,业务规模扩张成主要瓶颈


五家渠炒股配资GENJUQIYECAIBAO,2011NIANHOUQUANJUDEXIAOSHOUMAOLILVJUNJIAOWEIWENDING,DAZHIWEICHIZAI55%-60%ZUOYOUBODONG。SHUOMINGXIANJIEDUANSUIRANQIYEYINGSHOUGUIMOKUOZHANGBIAOXIANJIAOWEIYIBAN,DANZAIYINGYECHENGBENKONGZHIFANGMIANDELIDUSHIZHONGBAKONGWENDING,BINGWUMINGXIANWENTI。


五家渠炒股配资JINGLILVFANGMIAN,2011-2017NIAN,QUANJUDEJINGLILVSHUIPINGDAZHIWEICHIZAI7.5%YISHANG,CHUGEBIENIANFENWAIBINGWUMINGXIANBODONG,SUIRANSUIHOU2018-2019NIANQIYEJINGLILVSHUIPINGCHUXIANMINGXIANXIAHUA,DANZHUYAOYUANYINWEIQIYEYINGYEWAISHOURUJIANSHAO(2018-2019NIANQUANJUDEYINGYEWAISHOURUFENBIEWEI238.55WANYUAN、75.74WANYUAN,JUNJIAO2017NIAN487.91YIYUANYOUJIAODAXIAHUA),QIYEYINGYEWAIZHICHUYUTOUZISHOUYIBIAOXIANRENGJIAOWEIWENDING。ZONGHELAIKAN,QUANJUDEJINGYINGNENGLIWENDINGXINGBINGBUCHA,QIYEDANGQIANZHUYAOFAZHANPINGJINGZAIYUYEWUGUIMOKUOZHANGDETINGZHISHENZHISHOUSUO。

图表3:2011-2019年全聚德(002186.SZ)毛利率与净利率情况(单位:%)


——门店接待人次止步不前


2010-2019NIANQUANJUDEMENDIANSHULIANGDAZHICHENGXIANZENGZHANGTAISHI(CHU2019NIANMENDIANSHULIANGJIAO2018NIANJIANSHAO3JIAYIWAI,QIYUNIANFENMENDIANSHULIANGJUNYOUZENGJIAHUOWEICHIYUANYOUSHUIPING),JIEZHI2019NIANMOQUANJUDEGONGYOUMENDIAN118JIA,JIAO2010NIANZENGZHANG33JIA。DANYUQUANJUDEWENBUKUOZHANGDEMENDIANSHULIANGBUTONG,ZI2011NIANQI,CHU2017NIANQUANJUDEJIEDAIRENCICHAOGUO800WANYIWAI,QIYUNIANFENQUANJUDEJIEDAIRENCIJUNWUMINGXIANTUPO,2018-2019NIANGENGSHISHIXIANLIANGLIANJIANG,2019NIANQUANNIANQUANJUDEJIEDAIRENCISHULIANGJINWEI659WANRENCI,WEI2011NIANYILAISHOUCIDIEPO700WANRENCI。

图表4:2011-2019年全聚德(002186.SZ)门店数量与接待人次情况(单位:家,万人次)


——客源集中度高,北京以外地区潜在客户群开发较弱


五家渠炒股配资QUANJUDESHIWOGUOZHIMINGLAOZIHAODIAN,ZHUDA“BEIJINGKAOYA”。YUQIKAOYAGUANMINGDIXIANGTONG,ZISHANGSHIYILAI,QUANJUDEYINGYESHOURUZHONGJUEDABUFENLAIZIBEIJINGDIQU。2011-2017NIANQUANJUDEBEIJINGDIQUYINGSHOUZAIQIZONGYINGYESHOURUZHONGZHANBIJUNWEICHIZAI80%YISHANG,SUIRAN2018-2019NIANQUANJUDEQIYECAIBAOBUZAIGONGBUQISHOURUDEJUTICHENGSHILAIYUAN,DANGENJUQIGONGBUDEWOGUOHUABEIDIQU2018NIANYU2019NIAN77.13%、100.37%(CUNZAINEIBUDIXIAO)DESHOURUZHANBIKETUICE,DANGQIANBEIJINGSHIRENGWEIQUANJUDEZHUYAOKEYUANDI。

图表5:2011-2019年全聚德(002186.SZ)北京、华北地区收入占比情况(单位:%)


KEYUANDIGUOFENJIZHONGWEIQUANJUDEYINGSHOUWUFATUPODEYUANYINZHIYI。MUQIANQUANJUDEZHUYAOKEYUANDIWEIBEIJING,BUFENSHIKEKENENGWEIBEIJINGBENDIREN,QIYUWEIQITADIQUQIANWANGBEIJINGLVYOUDEYOUKE。GENJUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJU,2011NIANYILAI,BEIJINGSHICHANGZHURENKOUZENGSUFANGHUAN,2015-2019NIANBEIJINGSHICHANGZHURENKOUJUNWEICHIZAI2150-2200WANZHIJIANBODONG,MEINIANTONGBIZENGSUJUNWEICHIZAI1%YIXIA,SHUOMINGZAIBEIJINGSHIXIANYOULUOHUZHENGCEYIJIHONGGUANJINGJIDAHUANJINGXIADECHENGSHICHANGZHURENKOUYIJIBENWENDING,BODONGFUDUJIAOXIAO。CIWAI,2015-2019NIANBEIJINGSHIJIEDAIYOUKESHULIANGSUIBAOCHIWENBUZENGZHANG,DANZENGSUJIBENWEICHIZAI4%ZUOYOU-5%ZHIJIAN,ZHANGSHIYIBAN。

图表6:2011-2019年北京市常住人口情况(单位:万人,%)

图表7:2015-2019年北京市接待旅客情况(单位:亿人次,%)


XIANJIEDUANBEIJINGSHICHANGZHURENKOUYIJILVYOURENCIBIANHUAJUNJIAOWEIPINGWEN,ZAIJIEHEQUANJUDEQUANGUOJIAOGAOZHIMINGDUDEQINGKUANG,RENGJIANGBEIJINGDIQUZUOWEIJINGYINGZHUZHANCHANGERHULVEQITA30GESHENG、SHI、ZIZHIQUDEKEHUKAIFAJIANGDAOZHIQUANJUDEXIANYOUYEWUGUIMOSHIZHONGWUFAJINYIBUTUPO。


JIEZHI2019NIANDI,QUANJUDEMENDIANSHULIANGYICHAOGUO100JIA,QUANGUODUODIQUJUNYOUSHELI,ERCONGQIYEBEIJINGDIQUYINGSHOUDEJIAOGAOJIZHONGDULAIKAN,QUANJUDESUIYOUYIJIANGYEWUBANTUZAIQUANGUOFANWEINEIJINXINGKUOZHANG,DANSHOUXIAOQIANJIA。RUHEHELIYINGXIAOYIWAJUEBEIJINGYIWAIDIQUMENDIANKELIULIANGYINGCHENGWEIQIYEDANGQIANZHANLVEBUJUDEZHONGDIANZHIYI。


——竞争对手出现打破垄断格局,全聚德多方比较占下风


QUANJUDE2013NIANKAISHIHOUJIFALIDEKELIUXIYINLICHUSHOUQIJIAOGAOKELIUJIZHONGDUYINGXIANGWAI,BUDUANCHUXIANDEXINXINGJINGZHENGZHEYISHIDUIQIKAOYALONGDUANDIWEIZAOCHENGJIAODACHONGJIDEZHUYAOYUANYIN。JIEZHI2020NIAN5YUE19RI(BENJIEZHENDUIDAZHONGDIANPINGSHANGDESHUJUFENXIJUNJIEZHICISHIDIAN),ZAIDAZHONGDIANPINGMEISHIDANYUAN(BENJIEFENXIJUNZHIZHENDUIBEIJINGDIQUMENDIAN)YI“KAOYA”WEIGUANJIANCIJINXINGSOUSUO,ZHINENGPAIXUQIANSHIWEIDEKAOYAMENDIANZHONGJIUYOU6JIABUTONGPINPAI,QIZHONGSIJIMINFUKAOYAGONGYOU5JIAMENDIANSHANGBANG,QINANLISHILUDIANGENGDUODEBANGSHOU,ERQUANJUDEZHIYOU1JIA(BEIJINGQUANJUDECHAOYANGBEILUDIAN)SHANGBANG,PAIMINGDI7WEI。

图表8:截至2020年5月19日北京市烤鸭门店综合排序Top10


五家渠炒股配资SIJIMINFUWEIDANGQIANBEIJINGKAOYAXILIECHUQUANJUDEWAILINGYIJIAOJUHAOZHAOLIDEPINPAI,YIXIAJIANGYISIJIMINFUWEICANZHAO,ZHONGDIANCONGRENQI、HAOPINGDU、CAIPIN、XINGJIABIDENGFANGMIANDUIQUANJUDEZHANKAIFENXI:


(1)人气、好评均显颓势


MUQIANDAZHONGDIANPINGSHANGSIJIMINFUDIANPINGSHULIANGZUIDUODEMENDIANWEIGUGONGDIAN,JIEZHI2020NIAN5YUE19RI,GONGYOUDIANPINGSHU22007TIAO,QIZHONGHAOPING21043TIAO、CHAPING227TIAO,HAOPINGLVYUCHAPINGLVFENBIEWEI95.62%、1.03%。DIANPUZONGHEPINGFENWEI4.92FEN(MANFEN5FEN),QIZHONGKOUWEI4.9FEN;HUANJING4.92FEN;FUWU4.9FEN。


五家渠炒股配资ERQUANJUDEQIXIADIANPINGSHULIANGZUIDUODEMENDIANWEIHEPINGMENDIAN,JIEZHI2020NIAN5YUE19RIGONGYOUDIANPINGSHU16656TIAO,YUSIJIMINFUGUGONGDIANXIANGCHA5351TIAO,QIZHONGHAOPING10308TIAO、CHAPING730TIAO,HAOPINGLVWEI61.89%,JIAOSIJIMINFUGUGONGDIANDI33.73GEBAIFENDIAN;CHAPINGLVWEI4.38%,JIAOSIJIMINFUGUGONGDIANGAO3.35GEBAIFENDIAN。DIANPUZONGHEPINGFENWEI4.51FEN,QIZHONGKOUWEI、HUANJING、FUWUPINGFENFENBIEWEI4.25FEN、4.23FEN、4.03FEN,JUNBURUSIJIMINFUGUGONGDIAN。

图表9:截至2020年5月19日四季民福与全聚德北京地区点评数量最多门店顾客反馈情况对比


(2)菜品多样化程度偏低


五家渠炒股配资CIWAI,TONGGUOFENXIMUQIANDAZHONGDIANPINGSHANGQUANJUDEHEPINGMENDIANYUSIJIMINFUGUGONGDIANDEQIAN14DAOTUIJIANCAIKEYIDECHU,SIJIMINFUZHUDACAISEMINGXIANGENGFENGFU,CHUKAOYAWAI,HAIBAOKUOKAOROU、SUPIXIADENGDUOZHONGYALEIYIWAICAIYAO。ERQUANJUDEHEPINGMENDIANDUOSHUTUIJIANCAIYAORENGYIYALEIWEIZHU,QIAN14DAOTUIJIANCAIZHONGYALEIYOUGUANCAIYAOCHAOGUO10DAO。

图表10:截至2020年5月19日四季民福故宫店与全聚德和平门店推荐菜品对比


QUANJUDEDECAISESHEZHISUIYOUZHUYUQIANGHUAQIZHUDAKAOYAXILIECHANPINDEPINPAIRENZHI,DANTONGSHIDUIQIWENDINGKEYUANZAOCHENGYIDINGJUXIAN。ZHANGQIYILAI,WOGUOJUMINYIRISANCANJIANGJIUHUNSUDAPEI,ZHONGSHICAIPINDUOYANGHUA,OUERCHANGSHIYICI“QUANYAYAN”ZUOWEICHANGXIANSHANGKE,DAN“TIANTIANCHIYA”KENENGSHAOBUFUHEWOGUORENMINDANGXIAYINSHIXIGUAN,YEYINCIQUANJUDENEISHIKEXIANGDANGYIBUFENWEIWAIDIQIANQUBEIJINGYOUWANDEYOUKE,ERBEIJINGJUMINPINFANGUANGGUDEXIANXIANGZEXIANGDUIJIAOSHAO。GENJUDAZHONGDIANPING,JIEZHI2020NIAN5YUE19RI,QUANJUDEHEPINGMENDIANDIANPINGLANZHONG“HUITOUKE”(XIACIHAIHUIXUANZECIDIAN)DEDIANPINGSHULIANGJINYOU388TIAO,ZAIQIMENDIANZONGDIANPINGLIANGZHONGZHANBIJINWEI2.33%。


(3)价格偏高,性价比低


GENJUDAZHONGDIANPING,MUQIANSIJIMINFUZAIBEIJINGREMENSHANGQUWANGFUJING/DONGDANDIQUDEMENDIANGONGYOUSANJIA,SANJIADIANPINGJUNRENJUNXIAOFEIWEI150YUAN/REN(QIZHONGZUIGUIWEIGUGONGDIAN156YUAN/REN,ZUIBIANYIWEIWANGFUJINGDENGSHIKOUDIAN144YUAN/REN);ERTONGDIDUANDEQUANJUDEMENDIANYOU1JIA,RENJUNXIAOFEI201YUAN/REN。


CIWAI,CONGZHUDAKAOYADECAIJIALAIKAN,SIJIMINFUSUXIANGNENKAOYAJIAGEWEI228/FEN,ERQUANJUDEDESHENGSHIMUDANKAOYAJIAGEZEWEI288YUAN/FEN,LIANGZHEXIANGCHAJIAODA。ZONGHELAIKAN,QUANJUDEZHENGTIDINGJIAPIANGAO,XIANJIEDUANDUOSHUDIANPINGLEIRUANJIANYIJIWEIBOSHANGDUIYUQIXINGJIABIBUGAODEPINGJIAYEXIANGDUIJIAODUO。


高层换血能否扭转颓势引人期待


五家渠炒股配资ZI2014NIANYILAI,QUANJUDEGAOCENGJIUKAISHIPINFANHUANXUEYISHITUZHENGJIUDIMIDEYEJI。2020NIAN4YUEQUANJUDEZAIYURENSHIBIANDONG,4YUE9RIWANJIAN,QUANJUDE(002186.SZ)FABU配资开户 CHENG,DONGSHIZHANGBAOMINYINDADAOFADINGTUIXIUNIANLING,XIANGGONGSIDONGSHIHUISHENQINGCIQUGONGSIDONGSHI、DONGSHIZHANGZHIWU,CIZHIHOUBUZAIDANRENGONGSIRENHEZHIWU,ZHEILIBAOMINJIERENDONGSHIZHANGGANGGUOQUYINIAN。WEILAIXINSHANGRENDEDONGSHIZHANGNENGFOUNIUZHUANDANGQIANTUISHI,XIEZHU“KAOYAYIGE”ZHONGHUIXIRIRONGGUANGRANGRENSHIMUYIDAI。


  转自:前瞻产业研究院

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